Wednesday, April 14, 2010
One Thing That's Been Missing Thus Far
Well, the O's are rounding out the rest of the options as losing goes. One thing they still hadn't done was get blown out. It's now 9-1 Rays in the 8th. Which begs the question - would you have felt worse had they lost another one-run game or would you rather see them lose 9-1? Personally, I think it's better for the psyche to not see the wheels fall off the wagon in the late innings yet again. Plus the added bonus of a day game means the blood pressure doesn't get all worked up right before bedtime. And who doesn't love daytime baseball?
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Well, from a statistical perspective, I'd rather see another close one.
ReplyDeleteYou see, I'm already thinking about next year. And I'm thinking that despite this start, maybe we win 75 games this season. Maybe we were good enough to be a .500 team and now after this debacle of a start, we will only win 75. And if that happens and we end up with, say, a 10-27 record in 1-run games, it bodes well for 2011, which is the season we should be targeting for a .500+ record.
1-run games tend to even out. Some years you lose more than you win, some years you win more than you lose, but overall it tends to regress to the mean. So if we were to win 75 games while going 10-27 in 1-run games, it would mean we really could have been closer to an 82-83 win team.
Blowout losses, on the other hand, are the indication of a bad team, not bad luck. They indicate that once again we have completely overrated our prospects and we can expect another 5 years of poor performance.
Sort of like the groundhog seeing its shadow, if we can't have wins, we want to see 1-run losses (spring is coming), not blowouts (a lot more winter ahead).