Is it possible Bergesen never really healed from the freak injury that occurred this past winter while filming a spot for the Orioles (seen here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCxxd8MVwTA) ? He apparently injured the capsule in his throwing shoulder, one of the all-time weirdest injuries.
He looked OK in the spring, but a closer look at the numbers reveals he was still getting hit pretty hard without his normal control. In 19 innings this spring, he allowed 4 HR and walked 9. In 123 innings last year, he allowed only 11 HR and walked 32.
Ratios:
2009 Regular Season:
1 HR every 11.18 innings
1 BB every 3.84 innings
2010 Spring:
1 HR every 4.75 innings
1 BB every 2.11 innings
This is not including his 2010 regular season, where he has looked completely hittable and has allowed 15 hits and 3 walks while giving up 3 HR in only 7 2/3 innings.
Will we soon get another "sudden" injury from a supposed important part of the 2010 Baltimore Orioles roster? This follows Brian Roberts' herniated disc that never was ok, and Michael Gonzales' apparently sudden shoulder injury, which according to everyone who saw him throw this spring is an injury he had from the get-go.
I think O's fans all have a collective pie in our face right now.
Or maybe he was never as good as he seemed last year.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at his peripheral numbers from last season (K/9, K/BB, BABIP), and it becomes apparent that he was never an elite talent.
There are a few select pitchers who, despite not having high strikeout rates, are able to paint the black so well that they make batters have poor contact. Not make batter swing and miss, but when they connect to have poor contact. These few exceptions are exceptionally rare, and as much as we wanted to hope that we had found one in Bergesen, it's becoming apparent that he's just a guy who had some success despite not having very good stuff.
There's a reason he wasn't a prospect until last season.
I predict that Arrieta, who threw 7 innings of 3-hit ball yesterday, will be up by the end of May in Bergy's spot.
K/9 isn't the sole predictor of success as you know - and mentioned - or any strikeout ratio for that matter. Plenty of great pitchers are not strikeout pitchers.
ReplyDeleteAnd I beg to differ. While Bergesen might not have been an "elite talent" he was certainly a prospect that was mentioned. And he put up fantastic numbers in the minors - and at every level. He does this because of his command of his pitches. He works quick and throws strikes ... basically what every pitching coach tries to drill in every pitcher's head. This guy just does it.
I'm not going to compare him to the obvious guys like Greg Maddux who succeeded without a fantastic K/9 ratio, but take a guy like Mark Beuehrle, or many others like him. I'm not saying Bergy's an ace, but he's proven (19 starts at the major league level can't just be considered a fluke) that he can succeed.
There just seems to be something wrong with him, and with the fact that he had that shoulder injury (caused by the curse of Davey Johnson (CODaJ)) I'm not all that surprised.
Maddux K/9: 6.1
ReplyDeleteMaddux K/BB: 3.4
Buehrle K/9: 5.2
Buehrle k/BB: 2.5
Bergesen K/9: 4.8
Bergesen K/BB: 2.0
And you are right, those aren't the only peripheral numbers that mean anything.
How about H/9 (or if you prefer, something as basic as WHIP)?
Maddux: 1.14
Buehrle: 1.26
Bergesen: 1.34
Besides, you are comparing him to 2 of the most exceptional pitchers of recent memory. Maddux was also an extreme groundball pitcher, which can only help. Bergesen was a flyball pitcher last year, which will come back to haunt him (see Pena, Carlos and Upton, BJ last night).
Bergesen was NEVER a top 10 O's prospect. His minor league success was never expected to translate at the top level, and if you look at pretty much all predictions this year, they expected him to be pretty close to a 5.00 ERA.
I admit, I overstated things by suggesting that he'd be out of the picture by late May. But with Arrieta knocking on the door, someone might need to leave the rotation. My money is on Bergesen.